Weakening home prices are beginning to reverse years of rapid equity gains for US homeowners, signalling a shift in the residential property market after an extended period of appreciation. Recent data show that a growing share of owners are seeing the value of their homes decline, reshaping household balance sheets and altering expectations around housing as a reliable store of wealth.
The pullback follows a combination of higher borrowing costs and cooling demand. Mortgage rates remain elevated compared with the ultra-low levels that fuelled the post-pandemic housing boom, dampening affordability and reducing the pool of potential buyers. As transactions slow, price growth has softened in many regions, with some markets recording outright declines that are starting to feed through into homeowners’ equity positions.
Home equity, which surged as prices climbed sharply between 2020 and 2022, has been a key financial buffer for households, supporting refinancing activity, home improvements and consumer spending. The recent erosion does not yet approach the scale of losses seen during the global financial crisis, but it represents a notable change in direction. Data indicate that owners who purchased more recently, particularly at peak prices, are more exposed to near-term declines than those who bought earlier and built up substantial cushions.
Regional disparities are pronounced. Markets that experienced the fastest price acceleration during the boom, including parts of the Sun Belt and mountain states, are seeing sharper adjustments as demand normalises. By contrast, areas with more constrained supply or stronger local economies have so far proved more resilient, limiting equity losses despite slower growth. This divergence highlights how local conditions continue to shape outcomes in what is often discussed as a national market.
The shift has implications for broader real estate dynamics. Reduced equity can limit homeowners’ ability to sell, trade up or tap property values for spending, potentially reinforcing lower transaction volumes. Lenders and policymakers are also watching closely, as equity levels influence credit risk and financial stability, even if overall leverage remains far below pre-2008 levels.
While most homeowners still retain significant unrealised gains from earlier price increases, the recent trend underscores a market moving toward balance rather than relentless appreciation. How far prices adjust will depend on the interaction between interest rates, housing supply and labour market conditions, leaving the durability of homeowner equity an open question as the property cycle continues to recalibrate.
